Match preview
Iran are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 64%. Only a poor recent run (three-from-five) gives New Zealand a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Iran are favourites (64%)
- Iran carry the higher Elo rating (+180 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Iran won 3 of their last five (3W 1L)
- New Zealand mixed recent form (1W 4L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 64% / 16% / 20% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Iran are expected to control possession and territory, while New Zealand will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Iran goal would force New Zealand to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Iran 2 · New Zealand 0.6
Quick stats
Iran — last 5
- Dv Grenada?–?
- Wv Mali2–0
- Wv Gambia3–1
- W@ Costa Rica5–0
- Lv Nigeria1–2
New Zealand — last 5
- L@ England0–1
- L@ Haiti0–4
- Wv Chile4–1
- Lv Finland0–2
- L@ Ecuador0–2
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.