Match preview
Belgium enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 74% chance. New Zealand likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Belgium are favourites (74%)
- Belgium carry the higher Elo rating (370 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- New Zealand mixed recent form (1W 4L)
- Belgium unbeaten and winning in their last five (4W 1D)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 11% / 15% / 74% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Belgium are expected to control possession and territory, while New Zealand will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Belgium goal would force New Zealand to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: New Zealand 0.5 · Belgium 2.1
Quick stats
New Zealand — last 5
- L@ England0–1
- L@ Haiti0–4
- Wv Chile4–1
- Lv Finland0–2
- L@ Ecuador0–2
Belgium — last 5
- Wv Tunisia5–0
- W@ Croatia2–0
- D@ Mexico1–1
- W@ USA5–2
- Wv Liechtenstein7–0
Head to head
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.