Match preview
Colombia are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 66%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Ghana a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Colombia are favourites (66%)
- Colombia carry the higher Elo rating (+198 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Colombia unbeaten and winning in their last five (4W 1D)
- Ghana mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 66% / 15% / 19% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Colombia are expected to control possession and territory, while Ghana will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Colombia goal would force Ghana to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Colombia 2 · Ghana 0.6
Quick stats
Colombia — last 5
- Dv Portugal0–0
- Wv Congo DR1–0
- W@ Uzbekistan3–1
- Wv Jordan2–0
- Wv Costa Rica3–1
Ghana — last 5
- L@ Croatia1–2
- D@ England0–0
- Wv Panama1–0
- D@ Wales1–1
- L@ Mexico0–2
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.