Match preview
Colombia are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 65%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Ghana a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Colombia are favourites (65%)
- Colombia carry the higher Elo rating (+220 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Colombia unbeaten and winning in their last five (3W 2D)
- Ghana mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 65% / 16% / 19% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Colombia are expected to control possession and territory, while Ghana will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Colombia goal would force Ghana to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Colombia 2 · Ghana 0.6
Quick stats
Colombia — last 5
- D@ Switzerland0–0
- Wv Ghana1–0
- Dv Portugal0–0
- Wv Congo DR1–0
- W@ Uzbekistan3–1
Ghana — last 5
- L@ Colombia0–1
- L@ Croatia1–2
- D@ England0–0
- Wv Panama1–0
- D@ Wales1–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 12C. Vargas G
- 2D. Munoz D
- 23D. Sanchez D
- 3J. Lucumi D
- 17J. Mojica D
- 16J. Lerma M
- 14G. Puerta M
- 11J. Arias F
- 10J. Rodriguez M
- 9J. Cordoba F
- 7L. Diaz F
- 1L. Ati Zigi G
- 26M. Senaya
- 23D. Luckassen D
- 18J. Opoku D
- 14G. Mensah D
- 5T. Partey M
- 3C. Yirenkyi D
- 8K. Sibo M
- 19I. Williams F
- 9J. Ayew F
- 11A. Semenyo F
Key matchups
Colombia's focal point in attack against the heart of Ghana's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Ghana's main outlet — how Colombia's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.