Match preview
USA are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 46%. Only a poor recent run (one-from-five) gives Paraguay a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why USA are favourites (46%)
- USA carry the higher Elo rating (+130 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- USA mixed recent form (2W 3L)
- Paraguay won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 46% / 22% / 32% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
USA are expected to control possession and territory, while Paraguay will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early USA goal would force Paraguay to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: USA 1.5 · Paraguay 1.1
Quick stats
USA — last 5
- Lv Germany1–2
- Wv Senegal3–2
- Lv Portugal0–2
- Lv Belgium2–5
- Wv Uruguay5–1
Paraguay — last 5
- Wv Nicaragua4–0
- L@ Morocco1–2
- W@ Greece1–0
- W@ Mexico2–1
- L@ USA1–2
Head to head
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.