Match preview
USA edge it on ratings AND form has been the better of the two over the last five.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why USA are favourites (53%)
- USA carry the higher Elo rating (+113 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- USA won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Paraguay mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 53% / 20% / 27% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
USA should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: USA 1.7 · Paraguay 0.9
Quick stats
USA — last 5
- Lv Belgium1–4
- Wv Bosnia & Herzegovina2–0
- L@ Türkiye2–3
- Wv Australia2–0
- Wv Paraguay4–1
Paraguay — last 5
- Lv France0–1
- D@ Germany1–1
- Dv Australia0–0
- W@ Türkiye1–0
- L@ USA1–4
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 24M. Freese G
- 16A. Freeman D
- 3C. Richards D
- 13T. Ream D
- 5A. Robinson D
- 4T. Adams M
- 17M. Tillman M
- 2S. Dest M
- 8W. McKennie M
- 10C. Pulisic M
- 20F. Balogun F
- 12O. Gill G
- 4J. Caceres D
- 15G. Gomez D
- 3O. Alderete D
- 6J. Alonso D
- 8D. Gomez M
- 14A. Cubas M
- 16D. Bobadilla M
- 10M. Almiron M
- 9A. Sanabria F
- 19J. Enciso F
Key matchups
USA's focal point in attack against the heart of Paraguay's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Paraguay's main outlet — how USA's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.