Match preview
France are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 76%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Senegal a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why France are favourites (76%)
- France carry the higher Elo rating (+376 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- France unbeaten and winning in their last five (5W)
- Senegal mixed recent form (1W 1D 3L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 76% / 15% / 9% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
France are expected to control possession and territory, while Senegal will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early France goal would force Senegal to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: France 2.1 · Senegal 0.5
Quick stats
France — last 5
- Wv Morocco2–0
- W@ Paraguay1–0
- Wv Sweden3–0
- W@ Norway4–1
- Wv Iraq3–0
Senegal — last 5
- L@ Belgium2–3
- Wv Iraq5–0
- L@ Norway2–3
- L@ France1–3
- D@ Saudi Arabia0–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 16M. Maignan G
- 5J. Kounde D
- 4D. Upamecano D
- 17W. Saliba D
- 19T. Hernandez D
- 8A. Tchouameni M
- 14A. Rabiot M
- 11M. Olise M
- 7O. Dembele M
- 20D. Doue M
- 10K. Mbappe F
- 16E. Mendy G
- 15K. Diatta D
- 3K. Koulibaly D
- 19M. Niakhate D
- 25M. Diouf D
- 5I. Gueye M
- 26P. Gueye M
- 18I. Sarr M
- 8L. Camara M
- 10S. Mane M
- 11N. Jackson F
Key matchups
France's focal point in attack against the heart of Senegal's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Senegal's main outlet — how France's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.