Match preview
Colombia enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 55% chance. Uzbekistan likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Colombia are favourites (55%)
- Colombia carry the higher Elo rating (220 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Uzbekistan mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Colombia won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 26% / 19% / 55% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Colombia are expected to control possession and territory, while Uzbekistan will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Colombia goal would force Uzbekistan to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Uzbekistan 0.8 · Colombia 1.8
Quick stats
Uzbekistan — last 5
- L@ Netherlands1–2
- L@ Canada0–2
- Dv Venezuela0–0
- Wv Gabon3–1
- Wv FC Urartu4–2
Colombia — last 5
- Wv Jordan2–0
- Wv Costa Rica3–1
- Lv France1–3
- Lv Croatia1–2
- Wv Australia3–0
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.