Match preview
Uruguay are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 54%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Cape Verde Islands a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Uruguay are favourites (54%)
- Uruguay carry the higher Elo rating (+240 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Uruguay mixed recent form (1W 3D 1L)
- Cape Verde Islands mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 54% / 19% / 27% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Uruguay are expected to control possession and territory, while Cape Verde Islands will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Uruguay goal would force Cape Verde Islands to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Uruguay 1.7 · Cape Verde Islands 0.9
Quick stats
Uruguay — last 5
- D@ Algeria0–0
- D@ England1–1
- L@ USA1–5
- D@ Mexico0–0
- W@ Uzbekistan2–1
Cape Verde Islands — last 5
- Wv Bermuda3–0
- Wv Serbia3–0
- Dv Finland1–1
- L@ Chile2–4
- D@ Egypt1–1
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.