Match preview
Morocco are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 61%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Haiti a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Morocco are favourites (61%)
- Morocco carry the higher Elo rating (+200 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Morocco unbeaten and winning in their last five (3W 2D)
- Haiti mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 61% / 17% / 22% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Morocco are expected to control possession and territory, while Haiti will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Morocco goal would force Haiti to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Morocco 1.9 · Haiti 0.7
Quick stats
Morocco — last 5
- Dv Norway1–1
- Wv Madagascar4–0
- Wv Burundi5–0
- Wv Paraguay2–1
- Dv Ecuador1–1
Haiti — last 5
- Lv Peru1–2
- Wv New Zealand4–0
- Dv Iceland1–1
- Lv Tunisia0–1
- Wv Nicaragua2–0
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.