Match preview
Netherlands enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 63% chance. Tunisia likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Netherlands are favourites (63%)
- Netherlands carry the higher Elo rating (280 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Tunisia mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Netherlands won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 21% / 16% / 63% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Netherlands are expected to control possession and territory, while Tunisia will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Netherlands goal would force Tunisia to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Tunisia 0.6 · Netherlands 2
Quick stats
Tunisia — last 5
- L@ Belgium0–5
- L@ Austria0–1
- D@ Canada0–0
- W@ Haiti1–0
- D@ Mali1–1
Netherlands — last 5
- Wv Uzbekistan2–1
- Lv Algeria0–1
- Dv Ecuador1–1
- Wv Norway2–1
- Wv Lithuania4–0
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.