Match preview
Genuine coin flip on Elo (-40 points). Recent form fractionally favours Austria.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why the model can't split them
- Elo ratings nearly level (-40 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Algeria won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Austria unbeaten and winning in their last five (3W 1D)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 36% / 23% / 41% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
The model sees no meaningful ratings edge, so expect a cautious opening with both sides wary of conceding first. Fine margins decide games like this — the first goal is worth more than usual, because the side that scores it can manage the game state from there.
Expected goals: Algeria 1.2 · Austria 1.4
Quick stats
Algeria — last 5
- W@ Bolivia4–0
- W@ Netherlands1–0
- Dv Uruguay0–0
- Wv Guatemala7–0
- Lv Nigeria0–2
Austria — last 5
- Dv Guatemala?–?
- Wv Tunisia1–0
- Wv South Korea1–0
- Wv Ghana5–1
- Dv Bosnia & Herzegovina1–1
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.