Match preview
Croatia are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 67%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Ghana a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Croatia are favourites (67%)
- Croatia carry the higher Elo rating (+230 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Croatia won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Ghana winless in their last five (1D 4L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 67% / 15% / 18% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Croatia are expected to control possession and territory, while Ghana will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early Croatia goal would force Ghana to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Croatia 2.1 · Ghana 0.5
Quick stats
Croatia — last 5
- Wv Slovenia2–1
- Lv Belgium0–2
- L@ Brazil1–3
- W@ Colombia2–1
- W@ Montenegro3–2
Ghana — last 5
- D@ Wales1–1
- L@ Mexico0–2
- L@ Germany1–2
- L@ Austria1–5
- L@ South Korea0–1
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.