Match preview
Canada are favourites on ratings but Bosnia & Herzegovina have been the in-form side. Closer than the badges suggest.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Canada are favourites (53%)
- Canada carry the higher Elo rating (+103 points)
- Host-nation advantage — Canada playing at home
- Canada mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Bosnia & Herzegovina mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 53% / 19% / 28% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Canada should shade possession but the gap is small enough that midfield control will decide territory. With little between the sides on ratings, a set piece or an individual moment is the most likely difference — expect a competitive game where the first goal heavily shapes what follows.
Expected goals: Canada 1.7 · Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.9
Quick stats
Canada — last 5
- Lv Morocco0–3
- W@ South Africa1–0
- L@ Switzerland1–2
- Wv Qatar6–0
- Dv Bosnia & Herzegovina1–1
Bosnia & Herzegovina — last 5
- L@ USA0–2
- Wv Qatar3–1
- L@ Switzerland1–4
- D@ Canada1–1
- D@ Panama1–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 16M. Crepeau G
- 2A. Johnston D
- 4L. De Fougerolles D
- 13D. Cornelius D
- 22R. Laryea D
- 17T. Buchanan M
- 8I. Kone M
- 7S. Eustaquio M
- 11L. Millar M
- 10J. David F
- 12T. Oluwaseyi F
- 1N. Vasilj G
- 7A. Dedic D
- 18N. Katic D
- 4T. Muharemovic D
- 5S. Kolasinac D
- 20E. Bajraktarevic M
- 6B. Tahirovic M
- 13I. Basic M
- 15A. Memic M
- 10E. Demirovic F
- 25J. Lukic F
Key matchups
Canada's focal point in attack against the heart of Bosnia & Herzegovina's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Bosnia & Herzegovina's main outlet — how Canada's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.