Match preview
Norway enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 51% chance. Iraq likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Norway are favourites (51%)
- Norway carry the higher Elo rating (160 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Iraq mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Norway mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 29% / 20% / 51% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Norway are expected to control possession and territory, while Iraq will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Norway goal would force Iraq to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Iraq 1 · Norway 1.6
Quick stats
Iraq — last 5
- Lv Venezuela0–2
- D@ Spain1–1
- Wv Andorra1–0
- Wv Bolivia2–1
- L@ Jordan0–1
Norway — last 5
- D@ Morocco1–1
- Wv Sweden3–1
- Dv Switzerland0–0
- L@ Netherlands1–2
- W@ Italy4–1
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.