Match preview
Senegal are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 52%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Iraq a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Senegal are favourites (52%)
- Senegal carry the higher Elo rating (+160 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Senegal mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Iraq mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 52% / 20% / 28% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Senegal are expected to control possession and territory, while Iraq will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Senegal goal would force Iraq to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Senegal 1.7 · Iraq 0.9
Quick stats
Senegal — last 5
- D@ Saudi Arabia0–0
- L@ USA2–3
- Wv Gambia3–1
- Wv Peru2–0
- Lv Morocco0–3
Iraq — last 5
- Lv Venezuela0–2
- D@ Spain1–1
- Wv Andorra1–0
- Wv Bolivia2–1
- L@ Jordan0–1
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.