Match preview
USA are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 56%. Only a poor recent run (mixed) gives Bosnia & Herzegovina a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why USA are favourites (56%)
- USA carry the higher Elo rating (+151 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- USA won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Bosnia & Herzegovina mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 56% / 19% / 25% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
USA are expected to control possession and territory, while Bosnia & Herzegovina will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early USA goal would force Bosnia & Herzegovina to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: USA 1.8 · Bosnia & Herzegovina 0.8
Quick stats
USA — last 5
- L@ Türkiye2–3
- Wv Australia2–0
- Wv Paraguay4–1
- Lv Germany1–2
- Wv Senegal3–2
Bosnia & Herzegovina — last 5
- L@ USA0–1
- Wv Qatar3–1
- L@ Switzerland1–4
- D@ Canada1–1
- D@ Panama1–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 24Matthew Freese G
- 16Alexander Freeman D
- 3Chris Richards D
- 13Tim Ream D
- 5Antonee Robinson D
- 8Weston McKennie M
- 4Tyler Adams M
- 17Malik Tillman M
- 2Sergiño Dest F
- 20Folarin Balogun F
- 10Christian Pulišić F
- 1Nikola Vasilj G
- 7Amar Dedić D
- 18Nikola Katić D
- 4Tarik Muharemović D
- 21Stjepan Radeljić D
- 5Sead Kolašinac D
- 8Armin Gigović M
- 14Ivan Šunjić M
- 19Kerim Alajbegović M
- 11Edin Džeko F
- 10Ermedin Demirović F
Key matchups
USA's focal point in attack against the heart of Bosnia & Herzegovina's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Bosnia & Herzegovina's main outlet — how USA's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.