Match preview
France are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 73%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Sweden a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why France are favourites (73%)
- France carry the higher Elo rating (+340 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- France unbeaten and winning in their last five (5W)
- Sweden mixed recent form (1W 2D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 73% / 15% / 12% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
France are expected to control possession and territory, while Sweden will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early France goal would force Sweden to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: France 2.1 · Sweden 0.5
Quick stats
France — last 5
- Wv Sweden3–0
- W@ Norway4–1
- Wv Iraq3–0
- Wv Senegal3–1
- Wv Northern Ireland3–1
Sweden — last 5
- L@ France0–3
- D@ Japan1–1
- L@ Netherlands1–5
- Wv Tunisia5–1
- Dv Greece2–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 16Mike Maignan G
- 5Jules Koundé D
- 4Dayot Upamecano D
- 17William Saliba D
- 3Lucas Digne D
- 8Aurélien Tchouaméni M
- 14Adrien Rabiot M
- 7Ousmane Dembélé M
- 11Michael Olise M
- 12Bradley Barcola M
- 10Kylian Mbappé F
- 1Jacob Widell Zetterström G
- 8Daniel Svensson D
- 2Gustaf Lagerbielke D
- 3Victor Lindelöf D
- 5Gabriel Gudmundsson D
- 11Anthony Elanga M
- 7Lucas Bergvall M
- 18Yasin Ayari M
- 24Elliot Stroud M
- 17Viktor Gyökeres F
- 9Alexander Isak F
Key matchups
France's focal point in attack against the heart of Sweden's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Sweden's main outlet — how France's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.