Match preview
France enter as clear favourites, with the model giving them a 61% chance. Paraguay likely need an early goal or a red card to turn it.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why France are favourites (61%)
- France carry the higher Elo rating (346 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Paraguay mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- France won 3 of their last five (3W 1D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 22% / 17% / 61% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
France are expected to control possession and territory, while Paraguay will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early France goal would force Paraguay to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Paraguay 0.7 · France 1.9
Quick stats
Paraguay — last 5
- W@ Colombia1–0
- W@ Bolivia2–0
- Lv France0–1
- D@ Germany1–1
- Dv Australia0–0
France — last 5
- Wv Belgium4–1
- Dv Italy1–1
- W@ Belgium1–0
- W@ Türkiye1–0
- Lv England4–6
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 12O. Gill G
- 4J. Caceres D
- 2G. Velazquez D
- 15G. Gomez D
- 3O. Alderete D
- 6J. Alonso D
- 10M. Almiron M
- 8D. Gomez M
- 14A. Cubas M
- 23M. Galarza M
- 19J. Enciso F
- 16M. Maignan G
- 5J. Kounde D
- 4D. Upamecano D
- 17W. Saliba D
- 3L. Digne D
- 6M. Kone M
- 14A. Rabiot M
- 7O. Dembele M
- 11M. Olise M
- 12B. Barcola M
- 10K. Mbappe F
Key matchups
Paraguay's focal point in attack against the heart of France's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
France's main outlet — how Paraguay's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.