Match preview
Genuine coin flip on Elo (-31 points). Recent form fractionally favours Switzerland.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why the model can't split them
- Elo ratings nearly level (-31 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Switzerland unbeaten and winning in their last five (3W 2D)
- Colombia unbeaten and winning in their last five (3W 2D)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 38% / 24% / 38% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
The model sees no meaningful ratings edge, so expect a cautious opening with both sides wary of conceding first. Fine margins decide games like this — the first goal is worth more than usual, because the side that scores it can manage the game state from there.
Expected goals: Switzerland 1.3 · Colombia 1.3
Quick stats
Switzerland — last 5
- Dv Colombia0–0
- Wv Algeria2–0
- Wv Canada2–1
- Wv Bosnia & Herzegovina4–1
- D@ Qatar1–1
Colombia — last 5
- D@ Switzerland0–0
- Wv Ghana1–0
- Dv Portugal0–0
- Wv Congo DR1–0
- W@ Uzbekistan3–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1G. Kobel G
- 6D. Zakaria D
- 4N. Elvedi D
- 5M. Akanji D
- 13R. Rodriguez D
- 8R. Freuler M
- 10G. Xhaka M
- 22F. Rieder M
- 14A. Jashari M
- 11D. Ndoye M
- 7B. Embolo F
- 12C. Vargas G
- 2D. Munoz D
- 23D. Sanchez D
- 3J. Lucumi D
- 17J. Mojica D
- 11J. Arias M
- 16J. Lerma M
- 14G. Puerta M
- 7L. Diaz M
- 10J. Rodriguez F
- 25L. Suarez F
Key matchups
Switzerland's focal point in attack against the heart of Colombia's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Colombia's main outlet — how Switzerland's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.