Match preview
Spain are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 74%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Cape Verde Islands a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Spain are favourites (74%)
- Spain carry the higher Elo rating (+479 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Spain unbeaten and winning in their last five (5W)
- Cape Verde Islands mixed recent form (1W 3D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 74% / 15% / 11% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Spain are expected to control possession and territory, while Cape Verde Islands will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Spain goal would force Cape Verde Islands to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Spain 2.1 · Cape Verde Islands 0.5
Quick stats
Spain — last 5
- Wv Argentina1–0
- W@ France2–0
- Wv Belgium2–1
- W@ Portugal1–0
- Wv Austria3–0
Cape Verde Islands — last 5
- L@ Argentina2–3
- Dv Saudi Arabia0–0
- D@ Uruguay2–2
- D@ Spain0–0
- Wv Bermuda3–0
Head to head
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.