Match preview
Spain are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 65%. Only a poor recent run (three-from-five) gives Cape Verde Islands a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Spain are favourites (65%)
- Spain carry the higher Elo rating (+380 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Spain unbeaten in their last five (2W 2D)
- Cape Verde Islands mixed recent form (2W 2D 1L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 65% / 16% / 19% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Spain are expected to control possession and territory, while Cape Verde Islands will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Spain goal would force Cape Verde Islands to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Spain 2 · Cape Verde Islands 0.6
Quick stats
Spain — last 5
- W@ Peru3–1
- Dv Iraq1–1
- Dv Egypt0–0
- Wv Serbia3–0
- Dv Argentina?–?
Cape Verde Islands — last 5
- Wv Bermuda3–0
- Wv Serbia3–0
- Dv Finland1–1
- L@ Chile2–4
- D@ Egypt1–1
Head to head
No recent meetings on record between these sides.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.