Match preview
Argentina are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 73%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Algeria a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why Argentina are favourites (73%)
- Argentina carry the higher Elo rating (+436 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- Argentina unbeaten and winning in their last five (5W)
- Algeria mixed recent form (2W 1D 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 73% / 15% / 12% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
Argentina are expected to control possession and territory, while Algeria will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early Argentina goal would force Algeria to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: Argentina 2.1 · Algeria 0.5
Quick stats
Argentina — last 5
- Wv Switzerland3–1
- Wv Egypt3–2
- Wv Cape Verde Islands3–2
- W@ Jordan3–1
- Wv Austria2–0
Algeria — last 5
- L@ Switzerland0–2
- Dv Austria3–3
- W@ Jordan2–1
- L@ Argentina0–3
- W@ Bolivia4–0
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 23E. Martinez G
- 4G. Montiel D
- 13C. Romero D
- 6L. Martinez D
- 25F. Medina D
- 7R. de Paul M
- 20A. Mac Allister M
- 24E. Fernandez M
- 16T. Almada M
- 10L. Messi F
- 22L. Martinez F
- 23L. Zidane G
- 17R. Belghali D
- 2A. Mandi D
- 21R. Bensebaini D
- 15R. Ait-Nouri D
- 14H. Boudaoui M
- 19N. Bentaleb M
- 22I. Maza M
- 11A. Hadj Moussa F
- 9A. Gouiri F
- 10F. Chaibi F
Key matchups
Argentina's focal point in attack against the heart of Algeria's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Algeria's main outlet — how Argentina's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.