Argentina

Group STAGE - GROUP J · 0 pts · 0 played

The deep dive — The defending champions

The best tournament temperament in the sport. Argentina rarely play the prettiest football at World Cups; they play the right football at the right moments, and the spine that won Qatar — Martínez, Romero, De Paul, Fernández, Mac Allister, Álvarez — is all still here and mostly still in its prime. Scaloni reads tournaments better than any international manager working. The model seeds them top of the field at 2160.

Outright market

around 9/1 to 10/1

The model is shorter than the market here. Argentina are the price if you buy the Americas edge and trust the older legs to survive the extra game.

Why they can win it

The champion core is intact. This is not an old side with Messi bolted on; most of the 2022 team is 26 to 30.
The tournament is basically at home. Messi lives and plays in the US, they won the 2024 Copa América there, and every stadium they walk into will sound like Buenos Aires.
Group J is one of the softest in the draw, which in an eight-game format means fresh legs in the rounds that decide it.
Emiliano Martínez in a shootout is worth half a goal before anyone steps up, and the new format adds a potential extra knockout round.

Why they can't

Nobody has retained the World Cup since Brazil in 1962. There are sixty years of reasons why.
The edges of the squad are old. Messi is 39 by the final, Otamendi 38, and a farewell tour brings emotional weight as well as motivation.
Eight matches in a North American summer is a lot to ask of the older legs, and Scaloni will have to manage minutes ruthlessly.

Key man

Alexis Mac Allister. Messi supplies the moments, but Mac Allister sets the tempo the whole machine runs at.

X-factor

Franco Mastantuono. A teenager with Real Madrid quality who gives Scaloni something nobody has film on when a knockout tie goes stale.

Verdict: The model's top seed and the rational favourite. If the old legs survive eight games, the temperament takes care of the rest.