Match preview
England are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 59%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Croatia a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why England are favourites (59%)
- England carry the higher Elo rating (+175 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- England unbeaten and winning in their last five (4W 1D)
- Croatia won 3 of their last five (3W 2L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 59% / 17% / 24% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
England are expected to control possession and territory, while Croatia will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks. An early England goal would force Croatia to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: England 1.9 · Croatia 0.7
Quick stats
England — last 5
- W@ Norway2–1
- W@ Mexico3–2
- Wv Congo DR2–1
- W@ Panama2–0
- Dv Ghana0–0
Croatia — last 5
- L@ Portugal1–2
- Wv Ghana2–1
- W@ Panama1–0
- L@ England2–4
- Wv Slovenia2–1
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1J. Pickford G
- 24R. James D
- 2E. Konsa D
- 5J. Stones D
- 3N. O'Reilly D
- 8E. Anderson M
- 4D. Rice M
- 20N. Madueke M
- 10J. Bellingham M
- 18A. Gordon M
- 9H. Kane F
- 1D. Livakovic G
- 6J. Sutalo D
- 22L. Vuskovic D
- 4J. Gvardiol D
- 2J. Stanisic M
- 10L. Modric M
- 15M. Pasalic M
- 14I. Perisic M
- 17P. Sucic F
- 16M. Baturina F
- 26P. Musa F
Key matchups
England's focal point in attack against the heart of Croatia's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Croatia's main outlet — how England's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.