England

Group STAGE - GROUP L · 0 pts · 0 played

The deep dive — Cold-blooded at last

A near-miss generation finally paired with a manager who has actually won the biggest knockout competition there is. Tuchel's England qualified with a perfect record and zero goals conceded, and were criticised for being boring while doing it, which rather proves the point of hiring him. Kane is still one of the three best strikers alive and the attacking depth behind him is absurd.

Outright market

around 13/2 to 7/1

Sensible rather than exciting. England have the route and the squad, but the price already assumes Tuchel fixes the knockout habits.

Why they can win it

The squad has been semi-final calibre for three straight tournaments. The missing piece was always game management, which is the one thing Tuchel is famous for.
Kane gets Panama and Ghana in the group and takes every penalty. England historically go as far as his early-tournament goals carry them.
England have been the best set-piece side in international football for years, and tight knockout games in heat get settled by exactly that.
Group L is winnable in second gear, which banks energy for the long haul.

Why they can't

Sixty years of finding new ways to lose winnable tournaments. At some point it's not bad luck, it's a trait.
Heat. England's record in hot summer tournaments is poor going back decades, and this will be the hottest one yet.
The left side of the defence still picks itself by committee, and good opponents have been aiming at it for five years.

Key man

Kane. The goals, the link play, the penalties — and at 32, the last World Cup where he is the main man.

X-factor

Cole Palmer. The slowest pulse in the squad. If a final is level with twenty minutes left, he's the Englishman you want on the ball.

Verdict: The best-equipped England side of the modern era, with the right manager profile for once. Top-three contenders. The heat is the quiet worry.