Match preview
England are clear favourites on ratings, with the model at 73%. Only a poor recent run (four-from-five) gives Congo DR a way in.
Decimal fair odds from the model probabilities before bookmaker margin.
Why England are favourites (73%)
- England carry the higher Elo rating (+344 points)
- Neutral venue — no home advantage applied
- England unbeaten and winning in their last five (4W 1D)
- Congo DR mixed recent form (1W 1D 3L)
- Head-to-head treated as neutral — too few recent meetings to weigh (10% of the blend)
These factors combine to produce the 73% / 15% / 12% verdict above.
Expected match pattern
England are expected to control possession and territory, while Congo DR will likely rely on defensive organisation and counter-attacks — a setup their recent results suggest they may struggle to sustain. An early England goal would force Congo DR to open up, raising the chance of a multi-goal result; the longer it stays level, the more pressure shifts onto the favourites.
Expected goals: England 2.1 · Congo DR 0.5
Quick stats
England — last 5
- Wv Congo DR2–1
- W@ Panama2–0
- Dv Ghana0–0
- Wv Croatia4–2
- Wv Costa Rica3–0
Congo DR — last 5
- L@ England1–2
- Wv Uzbekistan3–1
- L@ Colombia0–1
- D@ Portugal1–1
- Lv Chile1–2
Head to head
Confirmed lineups
- 1Jordan Pickford G
- 25Djed Spence D
- 2Ezri Konsa D
- 6Marc Guéhi D
- 3Nico O'Reilly D
- 8Elliot Anderson M
- 4Declan Rice M
- 20Noni Madueke M
- 10Jude Bellingham M
- 11Marcus Rashford M
- 9Harry Kane F
- 1Lionel Mpasi Nzau G
- 2Aaron Wan-Bissaka D
- 22Chancel Mbemba D
- 4Axel Tuanzebe D
- 26Arthur Masuaku D
- 6Ngal'ayel Mukau M
- 8Samuel Moutoussamy M
- 14Noah Sadiki M
- 7Nathanaël Mbuku F
- 20Yoane Wissa F
- 9Brian Cipenga F
Key matchups
England's focal point in attack against the heart of Congo DR's defence.
The central-midfield battle most likely to decide who controls possession and territory.
Congo DR's main outlet — how England's central defence handles him shapes the counter-attack threat.
Predictions are model output, not betting advice. The model blends an Elo rating, last-5 form and host advantage; ratings update after every tournament result, and fair odds and likely scorelines are derived from the same blend. Bet responsibly — 18+. See PuntHub for verified tipster services.